PowerReaders: Superforcasting

Here are our takeaways from this discussion, lead by John McColl:

  1. It's not ego-busting being wrong IF it's not about your own field.
  2. Superforecasters use a variety: of sources, of questions, of reviews. They are constantly adjusting with new information, weighted for the quality of the information source.
  3. Anyone who is always "sure" is often wrong.
  4. The process to become a superforcaster is counter intuitive.
  5. It's important to get enough data, and to keep score - to know what my success rate is.

The thinking systems - instant and reflect - are distinct.

Amanda's example was that she can't do accounting and paint on the same day. She shared Rebecca's advice to take a shower and change clothes when she has to, to start a new day in her mind.

Pamela's example was immediate dissatisfaction with a product that, two days later, looked excellent!

John's reminder: You can only make a decision based on what you know at the time.

Lori pulled out the concept of regression to the mean - and how that affects prediction accuracy.